4) Iraq Expected to Accept UN Text

By SARAH EL DEEB
.c The Associated Press

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - Iraq was expected to accept the U.N. resolution to disarm, Egypt's foreign minister said early Sunday. But if Baghdad fails to follow through, U.S. officials said a Pentagon plan called for more than 200,000 troops to invade Iraq.

Iraq's foreign minister said Saturday no decision had been taken but several other Arab diplomats at a meeting of the Arab League here said that in effect Iraq had already accepted the resolution.

``I think we can expect a positive position by the Iraqis,'' said the Egyptian envoy, Ahmed Maher.

The New York Times reported Saturday on its Web site that Bush has approved a Pentagon plan for invading Iraq, should the new U.N. arms inspection effort fail.

Several White House officials reached Saturday declined to comment on the report, but defense officials said on condition of anonymity that the plan calls for a land, sea and air force of 200,000 to 250,000 troops, at least twice the number initially considered.

The United States and Britain have threatened military action against Iraq if Baghdad does not fully comply with the U.N. resolution.

``No decision has been taken,'' Iraqi Foreign Minister Naji Sabri told reporters at the Arab League meeting.

Saddam remained silent on Friday's unanimously adopted Security Council resolution, but the official Iraqi news agency kept up an Iraqi barrage of criticism of the United States for pushing through the strongly worded resolution, calling the document ``bad and unjust.''

``The whole world knows that the approval of this resolution was a result of U.S. blackmail and pressure exerted on the Security Council members,'' Baghdad's satellite TV channel said.

Sabri said, however, that in the long negotiations over passage the international community succeeded in diluting U.S. plans for aggression on Iraq.

Meanwhile, in Italy, hundreds of thousands of people marched through Florence Saturday in a peaceful protest against U.S. policy in Iraq as well as globalization, the subject of a forum being held in the city. Police said about 450,000 from all over Europe took part but organizers estimated the crowd at more than 800,000.

In Washington, President Bush applauded the 15-0 vote Friday, saying the resolution ``presents the Iraqi regime with a test, a final test.''

``This was an important week for our country and for the world,'' Bush said in his weekly radio address.

Bush said Iraq must now cooperate with U.N. inspectors and dismantle its chemical, biological and nuclear weapons capabilities.

The Pentagon already is moving forces into position to ensure that it will be capable of launching swift strikes into Iraq, should Bush decide on war.

The New York Times reported Saturday on its Web site that Bush has approved a Pentagon plan for invading Iraq, should the new U.N. arms inspection effort fail.

Several White House officials reached Saturday declined to comment on the report, but defense officials said on condition of anonymity that the plan calls for a land, sea and air force of 200,000 to 250,000 troops, at least twice the number initially considered.

Arab officials and commentators said the resolution - revised to satisfy French and Russian concerns - had at least set back the chance of war. But some expressed fear that Washington still could use the document as an excuse to attack Baghdad at the earliest opportunity.

The Syrian foreign minister, Farouk al-Sharaa, told Arab ministers Saturday that he received assurances from Security Council members that the resolution does not entail an automatic use of force, Maher said. Al-Sharaa did not speak to reporters after the meeting.

But as Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal left the Arab meeting Saturday shortly before midnight, he said, ``I think everyone welcomed transferring the issue to the Security Council.

``And they welcomed Iraq's approval of this resolution with the confirmation that Syria received that there would be no automatic military action,'' he said.

Maher also said that the Iraqi acceptance would depend on the guarantees that ``inspectors would act in a neutral ... and objective way, respecting strictly all the resolutions of the Security Council particularly those with regard to the respect of Iraqi sovereignty.''

Iraq had accused inspectors who were in the country during 1991-1998 of acting as spies.

The new resolution gives inspectors unrestricted access to any site, and that could remain a point of dispute. Iraq insists on respect for its sovereignty, an argument it has used in the past to restrict access to Saddam's palaces.

Maher said he hoped the resolution would avoid another war. ``I think this resolution is an opening for everybody to avoid a dangerous situation and to put an end to the crisis.''

Political analyst Abdel Moneim Said of Egypt's Al Ahram Center for Strategic Studies said it would help Arab efforts to persuade Iraq to accept U.N. demands and avoid a war that could oust Saddam's regime.

``The issue was redefined as an issue of weapons of mass destruction, and no longer a regime change,'' he said. ``Iraqis know that any little mistake will cost them a war.''

Jordanian political analyst Labib Kamhawi said Bush would see the resolution and the GOP victory in congressional elections as erasing the last obstacles to a war to topple Saddam.

``He believes that he has his mandate both from his people and the United Nations to launch his war on Iraq,'' Kamhawi said.

11/09/02 23:40 EST

6) Russia Says UN Averts War Threat

.c The Associated Press

MOSCOW (AP) - Russia's foreign minister praised the U.N. resolution on disarming Iraq, saying Saturday that it averted the threat of war and paved the way for lifting sanctions.

The Security Council unanimously approved the U.S.-drafted resolution Friday. It gives weapons inspectors wide latitude to hunt for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq.

``This resolution averts the real threat of war and opens the way for further work in searching for a political-diplomatic resolution around Iraq,'' Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov said, according to the Interfax news agency.

France, Russia and China opposed the inclusion of so-called ``hidden triggers'' that would automatically sanction the use of force if Iraq does not comply. After the resolution was passed, the three countries issued a joint interpretation that said the resolution excludes automatic use of force.

``Formulas unacceptable to Russia have been removed from the resolution,'' Ivanov was quoted as saying. ``It does not contain the automatic sanctioning of the use of force.''

However, President Bush warned Friday that if Saddam Hussein fails to cooperate the United States will not hesitate to take military action to eliminate its suspected nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons programs.

Ivanov said Iraq's cooperation with the United Nations would ``open prospects for a comprehensive settlement of the Iraqi issue, which includes the lifting of sanctions.''

Russia has deep economic interests in Iraq and has been Baghdad's main ally on the Security Council.

The Kremlin is worried about the $7 billion Baghdad owes in Soviet-era debt and about whether Russian oil companies would continue to have access to Iraq's petroleum fields if Saddam falls.

11/09/02 10:15 EST

7) US Plans 250,000 Troops for Iraq

By ROBERT BURNS
.c The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) - A Pentagon plan for invading Iraq, should the new U.N. arms inspection effort fail, calls for a land, sea and air force of 200,000 to 250,000 troops, officials said Saturday.

President Bush, who has publicly acknowledged having received a war plan without mentioning details, approved it prior to the U.N. Security Council's vote Friday to force Iraq to disarm, The New York Times reported Saturday on its Web site.

The president has not, however, ordered the Pentagon to carry out the plan. He will wait to see whether Iraq accepts and abides by the terms of the U.N. resolution. If arms inspections go forward without interference, a decision to go to war could be put off for several months, officials have said.

War planning goes on, however, to ensure that the military is ready to act if commanded to do so by Bush.

Several White House officials reached Saturday declined to comment on the Times report that Bush has approved the plan, or on other details.

Pentagon planners had considered an approach that would have used 100,000 or fewer troops, but they settled on a much larger force favored by Gen. Tommy Franks, head of the Central Command that would run any war in Iraq, said defense officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Bush said Friday he prefers a peaceful approach to disarming Iraq but if that proves futile the military is prepared to ``move swiftly with force'' to ensure the regime of Saddam Hussein is stripped of its weapons of mass destruction and its ability to produce more in the future.

The Times report said Pentagon officials are still working on some details of the war plan, but the basic approach is to begin with an air campaign, then quickly seize bases in northern, western and southern Iraq from which U.S. and allied forces could operate. A key early objective would be to cut off the Iraqi leadership in Baghdad in hopes of a rapid collapse of the government.

A major uncertainty, however, is whether Saddam would order the early use of the chemical and biological weapons that American intelligence believes he retains in defiance of previous U.N. disarmament demands.

As previously reported, a major strategic aim of a war in Iraq would be to avoid causing major damage to civilian infrastructure such as water and electricity supplies. The United States hopes that by focusing the war on Saddam's ruling elite it can avoid an anti-U.S. backlash.

The Times reported that Saddam is preparing thousands of civilian volunteers to fill ``martyrs' brigades'' and sacrifice their lives to bombs and advancing troops. Some of these volunteers would hope to slow the American-led offensive by acting as suicide bombers or fighting in neighborhood defense squads, but their true strategic goal would be to generate anti-American feelings in the region.

The Pentagon already is moving forces into position to ensure that it will be capable of launching swift strikes into Iraq, should Bush decide on war. The Navy has two aircraft carriers within striking range of Iraq and two more are scheduled to arrive in the area next month.

The Air Force says it is preparing to deploy B-2 stealth bombers to the central Indian Ocean island of Diego Garcia, where they could operate from special hangars now under construction. Other Air Force warplanes are in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain and elsewhere in the Gulf.

In addition to thousands of Air Force and Navy personnel active in the Gulf region, the Army and Marine Corps already have thousands of ground troops in the area and additional equipment and supplies are heading there.

11/09/02 21:44 EST

8) UN Plans Immediate Test of Iraq Inspections
By STEVEN R. WEISMAN
http://www.nytimes.com/2002/11/10/international/middleeast/10DIPL.html
November 10, 2002

WASHINGTON, Nov. 9 - United Nations weapons inspectors plan to force an early test of Saddam Hussein's intentions by demanding a comprehensive list of weapons sites and checking whether it matches a list of more than 100 priority sites compiled by Western experts, Bush administration and United Nations officials say.

The officials said the site list had been quietly put together in the last several months, winnowed down from more than 800 in the United Nations' database. The short list was derived from the findings of previous weapons inspections and the latest intelligence culled from defectors and other sources by American and other intelligence experts.

Fortified by the approval on Friday of a tough Security Council resolution demanding that Iraq comply with a new inspection regime, United Nations officials are expected on the ground in Iraq on Nov. 18. A week or so later, the first inspectors are to arrive and begin their work.

A provision in the resolution says that any "false statements or omissions" regarding weapons sites would constitute a "material breach of Iraq's obligations."
Many experts say Mr. Hussein is more likely to defy the inspectors than to cooperate. But the concern in the administration is to make sure any defiance by Iraq is beyond dispute. Only then could the administration convince the United Nations, its allies and Americans in general that war is necessary.

Many administration officials say they would far prefer a bold rebuff by Mr. Hussein, rather than have him seem to cooperate but actually try to run out the clock with evasions and confusing tactics in the hope that support for war will subside. Speed is important, military experts say, because the cooler winter months, ending in February or March, are the optimal time for an attack against Iraq.

The chief of the inspection team is Hans Blix, executive chairman of the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission, or Unmovic. Mr. Blix, who is to lead the inspections of biological and chemical weapons, said this week that the first team of inspectors would number between 80 and 100. Mohamed ElBaradei is to lead the team of nuclear weapons inspectors.

Mr. Blix and Mr. ElBaradei have personally assured top Bush administration officials - including Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, and Paul D. Wolfowitz, the deputy defense secretary - that their teams will be assertive in their demands of inspection sites. Their first order of business is to ask for Mr. Hussein's list of such sites.

Administration officials say it should be easy to tell whether those sites match the ones on the inspectors' list. But not everyone is convinced.

Martin Indyk, a former staff member of the National Security Council under President Bill Clinton, recalled that while monitoring Iraq inspections in the 1990's, he frequently went to bed at night convinced that Washington had solid intelligence information on weapons sites. But often, he said, the next morning showed nothing was there. "There's a risk in the whole enterprise of not finding anything," he said.

Senator Richard G. Lugar, Republican of Indiana, who will be chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee in the new Senate, said: "The inspectors may have some success unearthing things and revealing them to the world. But my own view is that it will be very difficult to find and discover the evidence. How can you tell if a kettle where shampoo is being made was once used to make anthrax?"

As for Mr. Hussein's list of sites, people with experience in the matter recall that shortly after the end of the Persian Gulf war in 1991, Mr. Hussein declared that Iraq had no nuclear weapons or biological programs but that his forces had already used chemical weapons.

"It was a blatantly false declaration," said Timothy McCarthy, a former weapons inspector. "As we went along, the lies became smaller and more calculated."

"I suspect that the chances are better than even that Iraq will come clean on something, maybe something of importance," Mr. McCarthy said. "It will be something like, `We just discovered that a Republican Guard officer had kept two anthrax bombs in his family's villa. He died and his wife called and told us about it.' The Iraqis then hand the information over to Unmovic and say: look how we're cooperating. That would be very consistent with prior Iraqi strategy."

One way of provoking a confrontation would be for weapons inspectors to demand to go to a site and find the Iraqis either blocking it or delaying the inspectors' entry, providing time for removal of any incriminating evidence.

"You know, they slammed the doors to the Agricultural Ministry and left people in the parking lot," Richard A. Boucher, the State Department spokesman, said last week, referring to what happened in the late 1990's.

To thwart such tactics, experts say, the United States would have to use spy planes to monitor compliance with a demand that the Iraqis freeze the site, with nothing - not even a donkey cart - allowed to go in or out. Ms. Rice, the national security adviser, has said that a delay of only two hours in a requested entry should constitute a violation.

But some experts think it might be hard to turn Iraqi dilatory tactics into a justification for war.

"The likelihood of Saddam providing a very clear noncooperation is small," said Ivo H. Daalder, who was on the National Security staff under Mr. Clinton. "He's likely to cooperate sufficiently for the process to continue. Is a two-hour delay in entering a building sufficient to lead to war, if, on the other hand, there is sufficient progress in visiting sites and gathering material and destroying it?"

Administration officials and experts say the inspections team faces an early quandary as to how quickly to demand access to highly sensitive sites, where incriminating evidence is most likely to be found. The experts say the inspectors cannot move so quickly that it looks like a deliberate provocation to Iraq.

Anything that smacks of a deliberate challenge, aimed at instigating Iraqi countermeasures, might alienate the French or the Russians. The administration is counting on French, Russian and Arab envoys to try to persuade Mr. Hussein behind the scenes to cooperate with the inspections if he wants to avoid war.

"Let's say that Saddam, despite all his past history, manages to subtly suppress the evidence of weapons of mass destruction, but give the impression that he is cooperating," Mr. Lugar said. "We then come to a dilemma. We have to say: cough it up or suffer the consequences. It could lead to a very difficult situation."

9) Iraq: U.N. Draft 'Bad and Unjust'
Sat Nov 9, 6:18 PM ET
By SARAH EL DEEB, Associated Press Writer

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - Iraq accused the United States on Saturday of blackmailing the United Nations (news - web sites) to adopt a "bad and unjust" resolution, but Baghdad's foreign minister said Saddam Hussein (news - web sites) was studying the U.N. measure that requires him to eliminate weapons of mass destruction or face serious consequences.

Saddam remained silent on Friday's unanimously adopted Security Council resolution, but the official Iraqi news agency and Baghdad's satellite TV channel voiced the leadership's obvious anger over the measure.

"The whole world knows that the approval of this resolution was a result of U.S. blackmail and pressure exerted on the Security Council members," the TV broadcast said.

The official Iraqi News Agency denounced the resolution as "bad and unjust," but said Iraq's leadership "will study quietly this resolution and will issue the proper response in the next few days."

Foreign ministers of the 22-member Arab League, meanwhile, sought to persuade Baghdad's envoy that Iraq should accept the U.S.-drafted document. Iraq has until Nov. 15 to decide.

A full discussion of the U.N. Security Council resolution was not scheduled until Sunday, the second day of the Arab League session, but the ministers turned to the issue Saturday night after dispensing with routine business.

Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal caused a flurry of excitement when he left the meeting shortly before midnight Friday, saying, "I think everyone welcomed transferring the issue to the Security Council, and they welcomed Iraq's approval of this decision with the confirmation that Syria received that there would be no automatic military action."

The comment seemed to suggest Iraq already had said it would accept the U.N. resolution, but an Arab League source said he did not believe any decision had been made by the Iraqis. He spoke on condition of anonymity.

Prince Saud did not stop to answer reporters' questions, and it was unclear if he had intended to announce a decision.

Earlier Saturday, Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmed Maher met with both Sabri and the U.S. ambassador to Egypt, David Welch, who pointed out the resolution was consistent with Arab League decisions urging Iraq's compliance with U.N. resolutions.

Sabri gave no hint of how Iraq would respond to the resolution, which also calls for the return of U.N. weapons inspectors with a tougher mandate to seek out hidden weapons.

"Baghdad will study the resolution and we will make a decision later," Sabri told reporters after meeting Maher.

While Iraq has criticized the resolution, Sabri said that, in eight weeks of negotiations, the international community succeeded in diluting what he called U.S. plans for aggression.

Maher said Iraq had said it would accept the unconditional return of arms inspectors.

"I think that after the issuing of the resolution, Iraq will deal with it in the same spirit. This is what we hope," he said.

Arab officials and commentators said the resolution, which was revised to satisfy French and Russian concerns, had at least set back the chance of war.

Political analyst Abdel Moneim Said, of Egypt's Al Ahram Center for Strategic Studies, said the resolution would help Arab efforts to convince Iraq to accept U.N. demands and avoid a war that could oust Saddam's regime.

"The issue was redefined as an issue of weapons of mass destruction, and no longer a regime change," he said. "Iraqis know that any little mistake will cost them a war."

Saturday's meeting is being held by a so-called follow-up committee that examines progress on past Arab League decisions, but it was expected to concentrate heavily on Iraq. Sabri, who is not on the committee, was to attend the session.

All the foreign ministers or other diplomats representing the Arab League were to meet Sunday as well and also were expected to discuss the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Marwan Muasher, leaving Amman for the meeting, repeated that Jordan would not take part in any attack on Iraq, its more powerful neighbor, and was still working to avert a war.

"There is still space for diplomatic action, which has succeeded until now to delay any military strike against Iraq," he said.

Jordan, which depends on Iraq for cheap oil and a market for Jordanian exports, would be hard hit economically if war broke out. But any prolonged conflict could upset the region's fragile economy and exacerbate differences among Arab nations.

The demand that Iraq eliminate its illegal weapons dates back to U.N. resolutions after the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait and the Gulf War (news - web sites).

Some on the sidelines of the meeting expressed the widely held view that Washington could use the resolution as an excuse to attack Iraq.

The New York Times reported Saturday on its Web site that President Bush (news - web sites) has approved a Pentagon (news - web sites) plan for invading Iraq, should the new U.N. arms inspection effort fail.

Several White House officials reached Saturday declined to comment on the report, which said the plan is to begin with an air campaign, then quickly seize bases in northern, western and southern Iraq from which U.S. and allied forces could operate. A key early objective would be to cut off the Iraqi leadership in Baghdad in hopes of a rapid collapse of the government.

Jordanian political analyst Labib Kamhawi said President Bush would see the resolution and the Republican victory in congressional elections as erasing the last obstacles to a war to topple Saddam.

"He believes that he has his mandate both from his people and the United Nations to launch his war on Iraq," Kamhawi said.

10) Bush Serves Notice on Iraq, Congress
By LAWRENCE L. KNUTSON
.c The Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) - President Bush, pleased with U.N. action on Iraq and GOP election gains, said Saturday that Saddam Hussein faces a final test to surrender weapons of mass destruction, and Congress has another chance to help the struggling economy.

``This was an important week for our country and for the world,'' Bush said in his weekly radio address as he reviewed the developments.

He applauded the 15-0 vote Friday by the U.N. Security Council to require Saddam's government to declare and destroy all weapons of mass destruction or ``face the consequences.''

``The resolution presents the Iraqi regime with a test, a final test,'' Bush said, declaring that Iraq must now cooperate with U.N. inspectors and dismantle its chemical, biological and nuclear weapons capabilities.

``The regime must allow immediate and unrestricted access to every site, every document and every person identified by inspectors,'' the president said. ``Iraq can be certain that the old game of cheat-and-retreat, tolerated at other times, will no longer be tolerated.''

Bush said he believed that Republican gains in voting Tuesday, which put the GOP in charge of both the House and Senate ``will strengthen our ability to get things done for the American people.''

A brief, postelection session of Congress begins this week, and Bush wants immediate action on legislation to create a Homeland Security Department and assure that construction projects can go forward under the protection of terrorism insurance.

``Our nation has important challenges ahead, at home and abroad. And we're determined to build the security and prosperity of America,'' Bush said.

He also said lawmakers must show fiscal discipline as they consider new spending.

The homeland security plan has been blocked since September by Democratic complaints that Bush's bill would leave the new agency's 170,000 workers without sufficient job or union protection.

``Republicans and Democrats in Congress are strongly supporting our war against terror. As the current Congress returns to Washington this week, I hope we can act in the same spirit of unity to complete some unfinished business,'' the president said.

11/09/02 17:34 EST